Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano prediction: SPAIN: LaLiga betting tips on match 2023-01-29 20:00.
Already both out of the Copa del Rey, Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano had a full week to prepare for a potentially decisive top-half clash between two clubs at opposite ends of the form table. Villarreal have been edging towards taking the fourth UEFA Champions League group stage slot from Atlético Madrid after four slender wins by a one-goal margin from their last five LL games, whilst Vallecano have stumbled in their pursuit of a top-six place.
Villarreal would have been playing cup football this week were it not for squandering a two-goal lead to Real Madrid, tarnishing their undefeated W12, D1 record across all 2022/23 competitions when scoring first. Warm favourites here against an out out-of-sorts Vallecano, Villarreal’s impressive LL record as home favourites (W5, D1, L1) illustrates their ability to deliver in front of their own fanbase, while four wins by a 2+ goal margin from their last four meetings with Vallecano across all competitions only serves to raise expectations here.
Vallecano have at times threatened to break into LL’s top six and return to European competition for the first time since 2000/01, with their win over Real Madrid and draws at Barcelona and Atlético Madrid being leading examples. However, an inability to string together positive results since returning from the World Cup break has left them languishing in a mid-table position, and alarmingly four points behind where they were after 18 games in 2021/22 when eventually finishing 12th.
Still, their LL win/draw rate of 67% as a pre-match underdog (W3, D3, L3) was the second-best of the division going into the round and highlights the threat they can pose on a good day. They haven’t historically posed much of a threat on the road against Villarreal though, winning just one of their 19 top-flight away H2Hs (D4, L14).
Players to watch: If Gerard Moreno can find the net as he did two games back against Celta Vigo (D 1-1), it will likely preempt a more favourable result given Villarreal had won his last 14 goal scoring appearances prior to that. For the visitors, Isi Palazón has scored in Vallecano’s last LL two away trips, and they’re yet to lose on the road this LL season when he does so (W2, D1).
Hot stat: Villarreal are the only LL club yet to concede a goal after the 75th minute.