Mainz vs Freiburg prediction: GERMANY: Bundesliga betting tips on match 2023-03-18 18:30.
The weekend’s Bundesliga action closes with a potentially crucial game in terms of the race for Europe, as Mainz host Freiburg with the side’s separated by just two places and nine points ahead of the round. Mainz’s longest winning run since the Thomas Tuchel era (2011) came to a halt with a 1-1 draw against Hertha last time out (W4, D1), yet with two of the three sides above them playing each other this round, this contest presents an opportunity to cut the gap to the top-six.
Not since 2015/16 have Mainz held a top-seven spot after 24 rounds of a Bundesliga season. That’s largely down to the fact that they’ve accrued as many points as the league leaders, Bayern Munich, from the second half of the season (W5, D1, L1). Building on that success isn’t beyond the realms of possibility either, as the Zerofivers have picked up more points against Freiburg (48) than any other Bundesliga side, only losing one of the last 13 H2Hs at home (W8, D4, L1).
A gruelling midweek encounter with Juventus saw Freiburg’s European adventure come to an end (3-0 agg) and could hamper their preparations for this game. Even so, Freiburg continue to defy the odds after their sixth-placed finish last season and are still just about in the title race, entering this round fifth in the standings seven points off the pace.
That’s some going for a side that were aiming to simply avoid relegation this season according to the Bundesliga’s longest-serving manager, Christian Streich. Freiburg’s stability across 11 years continues to pay dividends, with the side sitting on their highest points tally at this stage of a season during the three-points-for-a-win era. However, they’ve been erratic on their travels, conceding 3+ goals or none at all in each of their last six domestic trips (W2, D1, L3).
Players to watch: Leandro Barreiro has four goal contributions across his last five Mainz appearances (G2, A2), accounting for 80% of his 2022/23 total. For Freiburg, Ritsu Dōan’s goal in the last round extended his run of scoring club appearances without defeat to 19 games (W18, D1).
Hot stat: Just six of Freiburg’s 45 points have been picked up when starting as pre-match outsiders (W1, D2, L5).