Hamburger SV vs St. Pauli prediction: GERMANY: Bundesliga betting tips on match 2025-08-28 18:30.
[p]The first Hamburger Stadtderby in the Bundesliga since February 2011 takes place on Friday when newly promoted Hamburg host St. Pauli at the Volksparkstadion. [/p]
[p]Match News and Current Form[/p]
[p]After seven straight years in Germany’s second tier, Hamburg’s Bundesliga return on Sunday saw them earn a creditable goalless draw at Borussia Mönchengladbach, although it was the first time in nine competitive games that they failed to score. On a positive note, it was their first clean sheet in 11 top-flight away matches, which should give 34-year-old manager Merlin Polzin – the youngest boss in the division – some confidence his side can record their first top-flight win since May 2018, a season that saw them win their final three home games despite their relegation. [/p]
[p]When Fabian HĂĽrzeler moved to Brighton & Hove Albion in the summer of 2024 having guided St. Pauli back into the Bundesliga after 13 years away, many fans would have been forgiven for being sceptical about the Neighbourhood Kickers’ survival chances. They needn’t have worried, as HĂĽrzeler’s successor Alexander Blessin did brilliantly to guide the team to a 14th-placed finish in 2024/25, with safety secured on the final matchday of the regular season. Their opening league game of this campaign was certainly eventful, as they came from 3-1 down late on to draw 3-3 with Borussia Dortmund.[/p]
[p]Head-to-Head History[/p]
[p]Hamburg are unbeaten across the last three H2Hs (W2, D1) while competing in the 2. Bundesliga and have won each of their last three meetings at home against St. Pauli by a single-goal margin. [/p]
[p]Hot Stats and Streaks[/p]
[p]Six of Hamburg’s last eight competitive games saw both teams score. [/p]
[p]Hamburg have only lost two of their last five matches in which they have let in the opener (W2, D1). [/p]
[p]St. Pauli’s last 15 games have seen the away team on the day find themselves level or ahead at the break. [/p]
[p]There have been four red cards shown across St. Pauli’s last six competitive matches.[/p]
[p]Key Players to Watch and Missing Players[/p]
[p]Daniel Elfadli got the final goal in Hamburg’s last home game of 2024/25 – a 6-1 thrashing of Ulm – meaning that he has now avoided defeat in his last eight scoring appearances (W5, D3). Fellow 28-year-old Eric Smith got the late equaliser in that thriller against Dortmund on Saturday – the fourth successive time that both sides on the day have scored when he has found the net. [/p]
[p]Neither Hamburg nor St. Pauli seem to have sustained any fresh injuries during or following last weekend’s fixtures.[/p]
[p]For all the latest team news, please check the Flashscore match centre.[/p]
[p]Betting Analysis[/p]
[p]Given that the last seven H2Hs have each seen at least four cards brandished, it seems worth putting a bet on the same outcome here in this derby game. [/p]
[p][i]Author: Alex Bowmer[/i][/p]