Qarabag vs Ajax prediction: EUROPE: Champions League – League phase betting tips on match 2025-12-09 17:45.
[p]Qarabağ’s bid to stay inside the top 24 of the UEFA Champions League (UCL) could get a welcome reprieve when they host last-placed Ajax in Baku.[/p]
[p]Match News and Current Form[/p]
[p]Qarabag have done better than expected to earn seven points in this UCL league phase (W2, D1, L2), a surprise improvement from a side who finished 36th in last season’s UEFA Europa League (UEL). Qarabağ still need to tighten up defensively as one of a handful of teams to concede 2+ goals in four of their first five league phase games, although scoring two goals in each of their home games has certainly helped their cause (W1, D1). They have earned their favouritism for this fixture with an unbeaten run of ten home games across all competitions (W7, D3), taking points from both Chelsea (2-2) and Copenhagen (2-0) in that time.[/p]
[p]Ajax are almost already out of contention for the top 24 of this league phase after five consecutive defeats and they could be forgiven for writing off this campaign to focus on an Eredivisie race in which the top-two clubs book a place in the 2026/27 league phase. They’re on the verge of losing six consecutive UCL games for the first time and have already become the first Dutch club in nearly a decade to lose their first five games of a UCL campaign, since Feyenoord did so in 2017/18 before winning their sixth game. That’s a reminder that anything can happen, but with Ajax winning only two of their last 11 competitive away games (D5, L4), the odds still seem stacked against them.[/p]
[p]Head-to-Head History[/p]
[p]The only H2H took place in last season’s UEL when Ajax were 3-0 winners in Baku. Qarabağ are winless in their five games against Dutch clubs (D3, L2), failing to score in their three such games at home (D2, L1).[/p]
[p]Hot Stats and Streaks[/p]
[p]Eight of Qarabağ’s last ten wins in all competitions were by a 2+ goal margin.[/p]
[p]Ten of Qarabağ’s 13 league phase games in the UCL/UEL produced over 2.5 goals.[/p]
[p]Ten of Ajax’s last 14 competitive matches also produced over 2.5 goals.[/p]
[p]Ajax kept a clean sheet in six of their last eight European wins. [/p]
[p]Key Players to Watch and Missing Players[/p]
[p]Ajax’s Mika Godts continues to pursue his first continental goal of the season after registering his sixth Eredivisie strike earlier this month. Qarabağ have won all four of Nəriman Axundzadə’s goalscoring appearances in all competitions this season, including one in late November. [/p]
[p]There were no new injuries at the weekend for Qarabağ, who are still without Brazilian Kady Borges. Josip Šutalo will be assessed again after missing Ajax’s weekend game [/p]
[p]For all the latest team news, please check the Flashscore match centre.[/p]
[p]Betting Analysis[/p]
[p]QarabaÄź have kept a clean sheet in their last seven competitive home wins, so you could get value out of backing QarabaÄź to win to nil.[/p]
[p][i]Author: Aaron Murphy[/i][/p]