Dortmund vs Barcelona prediction: EUROPE: Champions League – Play Offs betting tips on match 2025-04-14 19:00.
[p]According to Opta’s supercomputer, Borussia Dortmund have less than a 1% chance of reaching the UEFA Champions League (UCL) semi-finals, and even that seems generous given they trail Barcelona 4-0 after the first leg. That was the 160th time that a team have lost by 4+ goals in the first leg of a knockout stage tie in the European Cup/UCL – of the previous 159, only one has ever progressed after the second leg![/p]
[p]That sole team was Barcelona themselves back in 2016/17, but with Dortmund never beating the Catalan side in European competition (D2, L4), giving Barça a taste of their own medicine seems unlikely. Some torrid home form plays into that too, with Dortmund winning just three of their last 12 home games (D5, L4), a run which includes a 3-2 home defeat to Barcelona. [/p]
[p]A 1-0 away win against Leganés moved Barcelona closer to the La Liga title as they continue their pursuit of a famous quadruple. They’ve got one foot firmly in the semi-finals of the UCL, which is a huge achievement in itself as Barça surprisingly haven’t reached the last four of this competition since 2018/19, and having won all three UCL games against German sides this term, they’ll be looking to rubber stamp their progression in style. [/p]
[p]An incredible 24-match unbeaten run in all competitions in 2025 (W20, D4) suggests they’re good value to do so, particularly given the last eight away games in that run all ended in victory. Four of the last five of those away wins came with an accompanying clean sheet, but having conceded 2+ goals in five of their last six UCL road trips, including one at Dortmund, defensive solidity is far from guaranteed here. [/p]
[p]Players to watch: A Serhou Guirassy goal could inspire some Dortmund belief as they’ve won on his last six scoring appearances, while former Dortmund man Robert Lewandowski netted twice for Barcelona in the first leg – his last eight club goals all arrived after half-time. [/p]
[p]Hot stat: Dortmund have conceded 15 of their 18 UCL goals this season after half-time. [/p]
[p][i]Written by Chris Wilson[/i][/p]