Inter AC Milan prediction 2023-02-05

Inter vs AC Milan prediction: ITALY: Serie A betting tips on match 2023-02-04 19:45.
The 178th Milan derby in Serie A (SA) takes on extra significance with both sides’ title aspirations hanging by a thread. Inter Milan became runaway leaders Napoli’s closest ‘threat’ after the last round of fixtures, but could find themselves a huge 16 points adrift of the table-toppers by the time they kick-off against their arch rivals. To keep any kind of pressure on, the Nerazzurri cannot afford to drop points here, but their positive all-time H2H record in this illustrious fixture suggests they’re well placed to avoid that fate (Serie A: W67, D56, L54).

Simone Inzaghi’s men have also already defeated AC Milan in 2023, cruising to a 3-0 success in the Supercoppa Italiana in January to avenge their 3-2 loss in the reverse league H2H this season. While that cup clash came in the Middle East, a return to more familiar surroundings bodes well for Inter, who boast the joint second-highest points haul on home soil in SA this term (24), after Napoli.

In stark contrast, the Rossoneri head into this huge clash a beleaguered outfit, after suffering bruising back-to-back league defeats which saw them concede 4+ goals in each. A dreadful six-game winless run in all competitions (D2, L4) has put last season’s title-winning coach Stefano Pioli under intense scrutiny, as he faces up to the daunting possibility of his side being 18 points behind the leaders after this round.

It shouldn’t be hard for Pioli to motivate his players for Italy’s biggest derby, as Milan look to avoid a third consecutive league defeat for the first time since September 2019. A key component in avoiding that feat could well be improving his side’s first half performances, with only struggling Salernitana, Sampdoria and Cremonese conceding more SA goals before half-time this term (15).

Players to watch: The Milan derby is a fixture that Inter hitman Lautaro Martínez thrives on, with the Argentinian boasting his joint-highest personal win tally against the Rossoneri (six), while also scoring against them six times. He’ll be battling for the limelight with Milan winger Rafael Leão, who netted either side of half-time and assisted in the 3-2 win in this season’s reverse fixture.

Hot stat: No referee has shown more yellow cards in SA this season than Davide Massa’s 53 at an average of 5.89 per game.