Paris SG vs AC Milan prediction: EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage betting tips on match 2023-10-24 19:00.
The 4-1 UEFA Champions League (UCL) defeat against Newcastle will weigh on PSG players’ minds as they step onto the Parc des Princes pitch to face AC Milan in this third matchday. Some felt that the loss was primarily attributed to the formation chosen by Luis Enrique, with only two central midfielders selected, and given that was a decision he did not repeat in the two subsequent Ligue 1 victories since, the latter of which was a 3-0 triumph here against Strasbourg this past weekend, it’s clearly a lesson learned for the PSG boss.
Despite PSG suffering their heaviest defeat in a UCL group stage under the Qatari ownership era last time out, they remain clear favourites for this clash, having lost only one of their previous 34 home group stage matches (W27, D6). Although it is worth noting that they have never beaten Milan in four UCL H2Hs across all venues (D2, L2).
Each of those encounters produced no more than two goals, and there's a strong likelihood that this trend will continue, as it has also been the case in six of AC Milan's last seven competitive outings. That streak continued with a 1-0 defeat against Juventus on Sunday, with coach Stefano Pioli stating after the game that his players were “never inferior at any point," as they fought with just 10 men for more than 50 minutes.
After starting their 2023/24 UCL campaign with two goalless draws, last season's semi-finalists need points, but only three goals scored across their previous eight outings in the competition does little to reassure their fans. Improvement in the final third is therefore expected if the Rossoneri are to enhance their record of only four wins in 15 away H2Hs against French opposition (D4, L7).
Players to watch: PSG could rely on Kylian Mbappé to make an impact early in the game, as he has scored six of his previous nine UCL home goals within the opening 25 minutes. Milan will hope Christian Pulisic can find the net, given he has led his team to victory in his last ten goalscoring appearances, including four this term.
Hot stat: At least one penalty has been scored in nine of PSG's last eleven home UCL group stage matches.